Temporal fluctuations in a species southern range: mechanisms and implications for estimating edge location

David J Booth (1)

1    Fish Ecology Lab, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123 Broadway 2007 AUSTRALIA  David.Booth@uts.edu.au

A  key metric for climate-­‐change effects on species is the change in position of poleward range edge. However,  for marine species, with dispersive  larvae, this is problematic. Here, I present temporal patterns (interannual, seasonal) in recruitment of tropical reef fish species into  SE  Australian waters.  A  15-­‐year dataset  of  over  80 fish species indicates large fluctuations in recruit   densities among locations, years,species and  within a season. The strength of the East Australian current and associated eddies is a weak  predictor  of  recruitment but  a poor predictor of overwintering success. Overwintering is strongly related to winter temperatures in some species but only weakly in others. Predictions of range shift for these species under climate change are   interpreted in the light of these results.


Species on the Move

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The conference brings together scientists and natural resource managers working in the disciplines of global change, biogeography and evolution, and relevant in contexts of natural resource management, biodiversity management and conservation, and theoretical ecology.

Species responses to climate change is a rapidly evolving research field, however, much of our progress is being made in independent research areas: e.g. understanding the process vs responding to the implications, terrestrial vs marine ecosystems, global meta-analyses vs in depth species-specific approaches. This interdisciplinary conference develops connections between these parallel streams, and across temporal and spatial scales.

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