D. Scott Rinnan (1), Mark Kot (2), Joshua Lawler (3)
1 Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management Graduate Program, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle WA, 98195
2 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Box 353925, Seattle WA, 98195
3 School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle WA, 98195
Species distribution models (SDMs) provide insight into how changes in climate might shape a species’ future habitat. While SDMs are effective at identifying a species’ realized climatic niche, they fail to account for many basic ecological processes that also affect the distribution of a species, such as dispersal ability and interspecific interactions. Here I introduce a hierarchical model framework that can incorporate information about the dispersal ability of species to yield predictions that are more reflective of the species’ biological limitations. The model combines SDMs with integrodifference equations to track habitat shifts over time. I then show how this framework can be generalized to multiple species to account for possible interaction effects, and apply it to a case study of big sagebrush(Artemisia tridentata) and the greater sage-‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). The results suggest that many species are more vulnerable to climate change than predicted by SDMs alone.