The ecology and evolution of species on the move: a mechanistic simulation model

Robert  K.    Colwell (1,2,3,4)    and    Thiago    F.    Rangel (2)

1    Department    of    Ecology    and    Evolutionary    Biology,    University    of    Connecticut,    75    North    Eagleville    Rd.,    Storrs,    CT,    06269-­‐3043    USA:,    @rkcolwell

2    Departmento    de    Ecologia,    Universidade    Federal    de    Goiás,    CP    131,    74.001-­‐970,    Goiânia,    GO,    Brasil.    TFR:

3    Center    for    Macroecology,    Evolution    and    Climate,    University    of    Copenhagen,    Universitetsparken    15,    DK-­‐2100    Copenhagen,    Denmark

4  University    of    Colorado    Museum    of    Natural    History,    Boulder,    Colorado    80309,    USA


The   potential   for   geographical   range   shifts   in   the   face   of   changing   climate   is   not   only   critical   for   species    survival,     but   also   impacts     human   nutrition,   health,   and   livelihoods.   Ecological   processes     that   contribute   to    range      shifts    often    depend    upon    previously    unexpressed    genetic    potential,    which,    in    turn,    depends    upon    past    climates    and    past    demographic    events.    Using    a    realistic    spatial    template    and    a    modeled    palaeoclimate    time       series     for      South     America,     we     built      a     spatially     and     temporally     explicit      model     for      the     ecology     and    evolution      of    species    ranges    on    broad    spatial    and    temporal    scales.    The     model    simulates    niche    evolution,    speciation,     extinction,   and   phylogenesis,   as     well   as     dispersal   and   interspecific     competition.   We   report   on    preliminary    results    from    this    ongoing    project.


Species on the Move

An International Conference Series

The conference brings together scientists and natural resource managers working in the disciplines of global change, biogeography and evolution, and relevant in contexts of natural resource management, biodiversity management and conservation, and theoretical ecology.

Species responses to climate change is a rapidly evolving research field, however, much of our progress is being made in independent research areas: e.g. understanding the process vs responding to the implications, terrestrial vs marine ecosystems, global meta-analyses vs in depth species-specific approaches. This interdisciplinary conference develops connections between these parallel streams, and across temporal and spatial scales.

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